On November 6, US voters will head to the polls to cast their votes in the midterm elections. Now that we are just a month away from voting, the battle lines for control of the House and Senate are coming into focus. Historically, the party that controls the White House (Republicans) tends to lose congressional seats during midterm elections.
The vast majority of media attention has focused on the House of Representatives, as the minority party (Democrats), is poised to make gains, and possibly, reclaim control of the chamber. Every two years, all of the House’s 435 congressional seats are up for election. However, only so many are actually competitive or have a chance of changing party hands. But, due to President Trump’s relatively low approval ratings, an energized Democratic base, and a recent spate of Republican retirements, more congressional seats are expected to be competitive. The Democrats need to flip 23 Republican-held seats to take back the majority and, according to forecasters like FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver and the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato, Democrats are slightly favored to do exactly that.
The race for control of the Senate is a vastly different story as only one-third of the chamber is up for election every two years. Currently, Republicans control the Senate by a narrow 51–49 margin, but they are facing a very favorable 2018 map. Democrats are being forced to defend 22 of their seats, while Republicans only have to defend 10 seats. Additionally, Democrats have incumbents running in 10 states that voted for President Trump in 2016, compared to just one state (Nevada) that Republicans are defending that went for Hillary Clinton. Yet, again, due to President Trump’s relatively low approval ratings, an energized Democratic base, and some surprisingly strong Democratic Senate recruits, Democrats have a path, albeit a narrow one, to reclaim the Senate majority, or, at the very least, minimize their losses in red-leaning states. Forecasters are mainly projecting a wash, with most outcomes seeing Republicans gaining a seat or two.